Anthropic IPO buyers talk $1.2T as roadshow nears

The two labs that sell you most of your tokens just got a lower price tag from the people who would buy them.

Some prospective investors in Anthropic's IPO are now discussing a valuation of about $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, Bloomberg reported Friday, according to Investing.com's summary. Investors had earlier given bankers a range of $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion, and figures as high as $2 trillion were discussed in early October.

The price slid twice in two days

The first cut came Thursday. The Wall Street Journal reported that three prospective investors said the offering would likely need to be priced lower, and one suggested a valuation closer to $1 trillion, per Investing.com. The Journal said Anthropic had been aiming to raise up to $100 billion in an offering the week before Thanksgiving, according to another Investing.com summary.

Then came Bloomberg's figure. A person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg no final decisions have been made. An Anthropic spokesperson declined to comment.

Anthropic appears to be pressing on. A headline from The Information reads: Anthropic to Proceed With IPO Roadshow Next Week. The rest of that article is paywalled.

On paper, nothing has moved yet. Anthropic's SEC filing record shows the S-1 on Oct. 26 and one amendment on Nov. 2, and nothing since. TopFive covered the original filing and the amendment's $895 billion in compute commitments.

OpenAI is taking the same haircut in private. Bloomberg reported Friday that OpenAI has raised $11 billion so far at a $1.25 trillion valuation, in a round that could reach about $20 billion, TechCrunch reported. In late September, Bloomberg had reported OpenAI was seeking $30 billion at $1.4 trillion. TopFive covered the smaller target last week.

The spending curve is the real worry

Yes, IPO valuations are a story for bankers. Here's the thing: the people now pricing these labs are doubting the growth curve you are paying into.

Ramp's card data, reported by TechCrunch, shows token spend grew 1.5% across August and September after a 42% jump in July. It then rose 8.9% from Sept. 23 to Oct. 23.

"A lot of the assumptions that we had about the trajectory of AI spend are starting to break down," Ramp's Ara Kharazian told TechCrunch.

Prices keep falling at the same time. Ramp's AI Index puts the blended price for OpenAI and Anthropic at $0.56 per million tokens in the week ending Oct. 23, down 26.8% on Ramp's comparison. Anthropic held 60.5% of that token spend.

Cheaper tokens won share this fall, and they cost money. TechCrunch reports Anthropic said in a recent filing that its price cuts reduced revenue growth by about $600 million.

What it means for your budget

A company priced on growth has two levers: sell more, or charge more. You are on the other end of both.

TechCrunch reports both labs have offered enterprise discounts meant to lock in spend. If you buy tokens at volume, this is the moment to ask for one, while the labs need booked revenue to show investors.

If you build products on top of these models, stop assuming each quarter's price will be lower than the last. Price your own plans with room for flat or rising token costs.

What to watch

The roadshow, if it starts next week. The price range in Anthropic's next S-1 amendment is the number that settles this. Then whether OpenAI closes near $20 billion or below it.

Watch the range. Then reread your contract.